This could have been Part 3 of my Huawei vs Google, China vs US, fellas, but I chose to write this independently as I will focus only on what will be the future of Huawei and the millions of Huawei users across Asia, Europe, the American continent, Africa and Australia.
And that includes myself, too!
Will Huawei eventually die to be forgotten in oblivion?
The big answer is NO, fellas, as China is on the finishing stage of developing its own Operating System (OS) now that Google has banned Huawei from accessing its Android OS.
The OS is called Hong Meng OS and experts said it will come out as Oak OS or Ark OS for world launching either by August or September this year. Ark OS will challenge the power of Android. Paul Denlinger, who writes for Forbes.com gave one of the most convincing prediction on how Huawei’s Ark OS will take on the cellphone world by storm that will surely shudder Google’s power who is under the wings of President Donald Trump.
Here are what he thinks will happen:
- The Chinese government will encourage Chinese brands such as Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi and One Plus to roll out Ark OS on their phones, replacing Android and Chinese developers and companies such as Tencent’s WeChat, Bytedance and Taobao, are now being urged to port their apps over to Ark OS;
- Chinese consumers will shift over to buying Ark OS phones in order to support Chinese technology and to stand up against bullying from the US’s Trump administration. All of the leading Chinese mobile app stores will also introduce Ark OS app stores. The Android market and Android app market will start to shrink;
- When there is a healthy China-domestic market for Ark OS and apps, forming an Ark OS ecosystem, Chinese companies led by Huawei will start exporting Ark OS mobile phones to developing markets in SE Asia, Africa and Latin America. In other words, they will sell to markets where the US has a tough time enforcing its technology claims against Chinese companies.
And so, what does this mean?
- It will take some time for Huawei to build up and build out the Ark OS ecosystem, but it will have strong support from the Chinese government and the Chinese public. For instance, the Chinese government may waive corporate taxes on Huawei for five years (or a similar period) to help it finance the buildout of the Ark OS ecosystem. It may also be doing something similar with Chinese suppliers who are now replacing US suppliers for Huawei;
- When the time is right, the Ark OS ecosystem will be positioned as the replacement for iOS and Android, replacing Google and Apple. In order to attract developers, some of the app stores may offer to take a smaller commission than Apple’s 30% for the App Store. There will be a strong political appeal to this; the Americans will be positioned as the unreliable bullies and the Chinese as the dependable technological supplier and partner. Non-Chinese developers will be encouraged to develop for Ark OS for apps targeting their home markets.
- The aim will be to replace Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android in as many markets as much as possible.
- Google and Apple will pay a heavy price for the policies of Donald Trump, Peter Navarro and Robert Lighthizer. The effect will not show up right away, but it will result in a slow erosion of growth which will hurt them five years and more from now.
- For the Chinese, this is going to be like the Apollo landings on the moon for the US. That is how big the symbolism is, and explains why the whole society is mobilizing for this.
- Google will suffer erosion from overseas ad revenue as Ark OS expands. So will the Apple App Store.
Here is an interesting question: Will Facebook be ported over to Ark OS?
Another interesting question: What happens if Ark OS and apps offer end-to-end encryption just as robust as Apple’s?
Another more interesting question: What happens if Huawei’s data centers are zero-knowledge networks? And what happens if Huawei offers end-to-end encryption and zero-knowledge networks?
Trump has opened a Pandora box and the US will not be able to put the genie back inside.
James Mbuthia reacts: “Not to sound melodramatic but the US actions against Huawei will one day in history be seen as the start or the end of an era…depends on which era you’re talking about. The US has gotten away with bullying countries and company’s because of its military and economic might. Everybody knows that they can’t directly stand up to the bully but behind closed doors in countries in Asia, Africa and South America and even Europe, there’s huge support for Huawei because it’s obvious now that this won’t end. If the world allows the US to destroy Huawei, then truly no company and no country is safe from the US hegemony. As US leadership becomes more unpredictable and radical, few countries will feel safe anymore.”
Mitchell Geller describes it best: “Behind closed doors in countries in Asia, Africa and South America and even Europe, there’s huge support for Huawei.”
If this will be case and scenario, it would be a healthier world if there’s competition in the same manner that it would be healthier during elections if there are candidates to choose from.
If Ark OS will be cheaper and better than Google’s Android, it will surely be patronized by Third World countries and by cellphone manufacturers looking for a cheaper but a better alternative.
Welcome, then, to the world Ark OS!